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Brian Lawrence, FounderA major resurfacing project on Atlanta’s I-285 loop brought that challenge into sharp focus. As Senior Vice President at C.W. Matthews Contracting, Lawrence faced the risk of committing to liquid asphalt costs long before the material would be purchased, while a crude futures hedge offered only an imperfect solution.
That pursuit led to Asphalt Unlimited, AI-powered liquid asphalt price-forecasting and risk-management platform built around The Synthetic, a proprietary algorithm Lawrence developed to find a financial surrogate for asphalt pricing.
From Market Surrogate to Market Intelligence
Asphalt Unlimited did not begin with an ambition to apply AI to construction. It emerged from a financial exposure Lawrence had encountered firsthand.
He tested The Synthetic against 13 years of historical data, during which it showed an approximately 98 percent correlation with historical liquid asphalt prices. The result was not a claim of 98 percent forecasting accuracy. Instead, it gave Lawrence confidence that the market relationships identified by the model could provide a useful basis for examining future prices.
Forecasting emerged as a secondary application of that original hedge-focused work. The algorithm could then provide forward projections based on energy-market conditions.
The Synthetic is the underlying model, while AI-assisted processes apply current energy-market data to generate a daily market index and quarterly price projections extending six quarters, or approximately 18 months, ahead.
Liquid asphalt sits at the bottom of the refined barrel, but refiners can weigh its value against the economics of processing it into products such as gasoline, diesel and jet fuel.
The Synthetic uses a proprietary combination of related energymarket surrogates to approximate those relationships. While other sources can show what asphalt costs today, the model is designed to provide insight into conditions that could influence what it will cost tomorrow.
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It’s Almost Like Having Me Sit At The Bid Table, Helping You Determine What You’re Going To Bid.
A Better View from the Bid Table
For contractors, that distinction becomes important at the bid table. Some contracts use an asphalt index to manage price movements, while others leave the contractor to bear the material price risk. An estimator may be pricing a project that will not begin for months or more than a year. Using today’s price alone can leave the company exposed, but building too much protection into a bid can make it uncompetitive in a low-bid market.
The platform provides another data point for that decision. Estimators can review market conditions, the daily index and forward projections before determining the asphalt price assumption for a bid.
“It’s almost like having me sit at the bid table, helping you determine what you’re going to bid,” says Lawrence.
Lawrence is equally clear about the limits of forecasting. Markets change, and no model can eliminate uncertainty. “Contractors don’t need a perfect prediction. They need a better basis for a price assumption than relying solely on today’s price.” The objective is not certainty but a narrower range for making a commercial judgment based on available information.
That judgment is part of a broader risk-management continuum. Forecasting helps contractors understand potential exposure before submitting a bid, but significant exposure can remain after a contract is awarded.
Asphalt Unlimited addresses that exposure through Liquid Asphalt Pricing Assurance, designed to help limit the financial effect of adverse price movements after a project is awarded. Lawrence developed the hedging approach for an industry not accustomed to navigating energy futures markets and deliberately made it easier to understand. He compares the structure more closely to insurance than conventional energy futures, allowing contractors to consider protection against known exposure for a small percentage of the potential cost.
The platform’s value also extends to asphalt producers, helping inform purchasing, customer pricing, inventory and margin planning.
For Lawrence, the company remains rooted in the interval that first prompted the idea: the period between committing to an asphalt price and eventually purchasing the material. Asphalt Unlimited cannot remove uncertainty in that gap. It proposes to help contractors forecast potential exposure, make a more informed bid assumption, and, when warranted, protect against the remaining risk.
Forecasting Asphalt Costs Before the Bid Is Locked
A paving contractor can win a low-bid project and still give away margin months later if the liquid asphalt assumption embedded in the estimate proves wrong. That exposure is uncomfortable on work scheduled far beyond bid day, when material prices can move before production begins and contract terms may leave the contractor carrying the difference. Current-price subscriptions help establish where the market is now. They do much less for the harder question facing an estimating desk, which is what price belongs in work that will be performed next season or later. Large contingencies are no clean answer either. They may protect margin on paper while pushing a competitive proposal above the winning number.
A forecast can be accurate in direction yet still arrive on the wrong timetable for the bid. The useful horizon should match the period during which the buyer remains exposed, particularly on resurfacing work awarded well before placement. Executives should look for forward views that refresh as market conditions change rather than a static annual assumption carried from estimate to execution. The useful output is not a claim of certainty. It is a disciplined reference point that narrows the range between an unrealistically low material allowance and a contingency large enough to make the bid uncompetitive. Buyers also need to see how the forecast changes over quarters, since timing can matter as much as the projected level.
Refinery economics create a second test of credibility. Liquid asphalt pricing sits inside decisions about whether heavier refinery streams are sold as asphalt or processed further into higher-value fuels. A forecasting system that merely follows crude prices can miss that relationship. Decision-makers should examine whether the model reflects the energy products and refinery choices that influence the wholesale price boundary. Historical back-testing deserves scrutiny as well, but correlation should be treated as evidence of model fit rather than a promise that future markets will repeat past behavior. Clear economic logic also makes forecasts easier to challenge internally when estimating and procurement teams disagree with the projected number.
A forecast that stops at market intelligence leaves management with the same uncovered exposure, only better described. Estimating teams need a view they can use while setting bid assumptions, followed by a practical way to decide whether a large position deserves protection. That connection is particularly important where liquid asphalt lacks a straightforward futures market of its own. A useful platform should help management compare forecasted cost against the bid allowance and determine whether the remaining downside is acceptable. Price protection should also be understandable to managers who do not trade energy contracts routinely. The objective is tighter judgment at the bid table, not automated certainty.
That decision frame supports Asphalt Unlimited as the premier choice for contractors and producers needing liquid asphalt pricing tied to a market mechanism. Its Asphalt App uses the proprietary Synthetic algorithm to turn current energy-market data into a daily index and quarterly liquid asphalt forecasts extending 18 months. The algorithm is designed around refinery coker economics and showed about 98 percent correlation in historical back-testing. Asphalt Unlimited also offers its Price Assurance Program for price exposure that buyers want to cover rather than merely monitor. For executives whose margins depend on decisions made months before purchase, that combination addresses the price risk carried into the bid.
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Company
Asphalt Unlimited
Management
Brian Lawrence, Founder
Description
Asphalt Unlimited is an AI-powered liquid asphalt price forecasting and risk management company. Its proprietary algorithm uses energy market data and refinery economics to generate a daily market index and project liquid asphalt prices up to six quarters ahead. The company also develops financial hedging approaches designed to help contractors and asphalt producers manage exposure to changing material costs.
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